Everyone that buys stocks needs to be paying attention to the story around Oracle $ORCL right now.
Being successful at investing is equal parts being right and avoiding being wrong.
Stock investing is all about probabilities, valuations, and luck.
I can't help you with the luck part.
But I have the tools for everything else. And this is the PERFECT case to show you why.
Social media is abuzz about the "collapse" of $ORCL stock price. Here's a few examples:
Even the legend Dr. Michael Burry is getting in on the action:
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Michael Burry Stock Tracker β
@burrytracker
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7:3 PM β’ Jul 17, 2026
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I'm not surprised in the least.
On 5/30/2026 I opened a position in $ORCL.
On 9/11/2025 I sold half that position because it was richly priced.
I completely forgot about the stock until my X feed was blowing up with hysteria. I love making money off hysteria.
Look closely at the price chart of $ORCL:
My buys are green arrows, my sells are red arrows.
The yellow lines indicate when a gap was opened and when it was filled.
The RSI has been noted to have a bullish crossover while in an oversold level.
My technical analysis conforms with the theory that most (but not all) price gaps eventually get filled. There were too many vulnerable looking gaps for my liking, until now.
The RSI setup is supportive and tends to offer a decent entry point.
But I never rely on technicals alone.
My trusty FASTGraphs was confirming the entire thing, as well.
At its peak, ORCL was trading at 47x earnings!
Come on, guys.
The stock has "crashed" down to a 16x earnings multiple.
Out of all my years investing in stocks, I have come to depend on mean reversion.
Mean reversion is the tendency of a stock to return to its long-term historical average valuation.
But I never know when.
Well, for ORCL, its today.
The stock has a 10 year average earnings multiple of 19x. It has sliced through that line and reached the Fair Value level, as determined by FASTGraphs.
Analysts are expecting strong forward growth of 6%, 34%, and 45% in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
For the first time since May 2025 I have been buying ORCL for my portfolio:
This case study is a teaching lesson. It's not a recommendation for or against ORCL.
It demonstrates that investing doesn't need to be complicated!
It also shows that the marketplace is not an efficient pricing mechanism.
The great investor Warren Buffett has said as much, when he wrote this to stockholders in 2022:
Efficient markets exist only in textbooks.
Back in 1988, he told shareholders:
Iβd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.
Warren Buffett is no bum.
If you want to use the tools that I use to manage my portfolio and produce meaningful passive income (over $5,000/mo), you can start a free trial for TradingView and FASTGraphs.
βSign up for TradingViewβ
If you buy a subscription with this link you will get $15 off.
βSign up for FASTGraphsβ
Use the promo code AFFILIATE25 to get 25% off a paid plan using this link.
I've used both these services for years and they are essential to my portfolio.
Disclaimer: these are affiliate links. I may receive compensation from these links at no extra cost to you.
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